Taking a break from the new shot map data and going back to my normal model. This week looks set to have 3 really close games, two of which have large finals implications. Brisbane and Adelaide may not have quite the same finals implications but if Adelaide are to hold on to any hope of making the finals then a win is absolutely vital, while Brisbane will be hoping to take down another notable opponent in their recent hot run of form. Melbourne vs Geelong also shapes as close contest with the predicted margin of 11 points being put down to the home ground advantage of playing in Geelong.
Aside from those four games the rest look to be either blow outs or largely inconsequential.
| Round | Home | Away | Ground | Home Predicted Score | Away Predicted Score | Predicted Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R18 | St Kilda | Richmond | Docklands | 71 | 101 | -31 |
| R18 | Collingwood | North Melbourne | M.C.G. | 93 | 91 | 2 |
| R18 | Sydney | Gold Coast | S.C.G. | 100 | 47 | 53 |
| R18 | Essendon | Fremantle | Docklands | 92 | 73 | 18 |
| R18 | Brisbane Lions | Adelaide | Gabba | 90 | 91 | -1 |
| R18 | Geelong | Melbourne | Kardinia Park | 91 | 80 | 11 |
| R18 | Carlton | Hawthorn | Docklands | 53 | 102 | -48 |
| R18 | West Coast | Western Bulldogs | Perth Stadium | 98 | 66 | 32 |
| R18 | Port Adelaide | GW Sydney | Adelaide Oval | 76 | 71 | 5 |
The difference between some predicted scores may appear to be slightly off the predicted margin by a point, this is due to rounding for display in this table.