Very ordinary round of tipping this week, 4 correct tips and an MAE over the season average. Underpredicting the size of the St Kilda win hurt the MAE and in turn saw a large increase in St Kilda's rating, this probably is larger than it should be and is an issue that I intend to look into trying to resolve at some point in the future when I get the time. Aside from that and West Coast's win at the MCG (the prediction was largely a product of West Coast's terrible MCG rating) the MAE for the round was fairly low across the board.
| Home | Away | Home Predicted Score | Away Predicted Score | Predicted Margin | Home Score | Away Score | Margin | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide | Geelong | 73 | 83 | -10 | 112 | 97 | 15 | 24.81 |
| St Kilda | Carlton | 89 | 72 | 17 | 116 | 52 | 64 | 47.34 |
| Hawthorn | Brisbane Lions | 94 | 74 | 20 | 65 | 98 | -33 | -53 |
| Melbourne | Western Bulldogs | 105 | 80 | 24 | 119 | 69 | 50 | 25.65 |
| Gold Coast | Essendon | 62 | 95 | -33 | 51 | 95 | -44 | -10.96 |
| GW Sydney | Richmond | 76 | 85 | -9 | 79 | 77 | 2 | 11.32 |
| Collingwood | West Coast | 88 | 73 | 15 | 67 | 102 | -35 | -50.03 |
| North Melbourne | Sydney | 75 | 94 | -18 | 98 | 104 | -6 | 12.18 |
| Fremantle | Port Adelaide | 61 | 90 | -29 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 37.64 |
4/9 correct tips for the round takes the season total to 93 while a round MAE of 30.33 increases the season MAE to 28.19. Season Bits decreases to 21.58.
Updated ratings
| Team | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Overall Rating | Last Offensive Rating | Last Defensive Rating | Last Overall Rating | Overall Change | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 8.36909 | 10.5227 | 18.8917 | 9.04828 | 10.7488 | 19.797 | -0.905283 | 0 |
| Melbourne | 15.0862 | 2.84131 | 17.9275 | 13.9272 | 1.94801 | 15.8752 | 2.052227 | 0 |
| West Coast | 7.52222 | 7.44424 | 14.9665 | 5.23206 | 5.732 | 10.9641 | 4.002404 | 4 |
| Geelong | 4.61113 | 7.6366 | 12.2477 | 3.49384 | 10.7386 | 14.2324 | -1.984671 | -1 |
| Sydney | 0.451601 | 11.5943 | 12.0459 | -0.374774 | 13.3952 | 13.0205 | -0.974537 | -1 |
| Collingwood | 5.78515 | 3.15398 | 8.93913 | 7.49739 | 5.44414 | 12.9415 | -4.002404 | -1 |
| Port Adelaide | -1.71761 | 10.5386 | 8.82099 | 1.47696 | 10.3549 | 11.8319 | -3.010882 | -1 |
| GW Sydney | 2.62421 | 5.40635 | 8.03055 | 2.39811 | 4.72716 | 7.12527 | 0.905283 | 1 |
| North Melbourne | 5.86831 | -0.468481 | 5.39983 | 4.0674 | 0.357893 | 4.42529 | 0.974537 | 1 |
| Hawthorn | -0.154996 | 4.28679 | 4.13179 | 2.14931 | 6.22261 | 8.37192 | -4.240125 | -2 |
| Adelaide | 2.92407 | -0.066387 | 2.85768 | -0.177897 | 1.0509 | 0.873007 | 1.984671 | 0 |
| Essendon | -0.532257 | 1.57529 | 1.04304 | -0.513619 | 0.67949 | 0.165871 | 0.877167 | 0 |
| Brisbane Lions | 3.35466 | -7.6528 | -4.29814 | 1.41884 | -9.95711 | -8.53827 | 4.240125 | 0 |
| St Kilda | -3.81677 | -5.91134 | -9.72811 | -5.97618 | -7.53942 | -13.5156 | 3.787503 | 0 |
| Fremantle | -11.307 | -2.48633 | -13.7933 | -11.1233 | -5.6809 | -16.8042 | 3.010882 | 1 |
| Western Bulldogs | -9.18844 | -7.69474 | -16.8832 | -8.29514 | -6.53581 | -14.8309 | -2.052227 | -1 |
| Carlton | -18.3274 | -14.3832 | -32.7106 | -16.6993 | -12.2238 | -28.9231 | -3.787503 | 0 |
| Gold Coast | -21.9339 | -15.9427 | -37.8766 | -21.0381 | -15.9613 | -36.9994 | -0.877167 | 0 |