I've been so flat out the last week that I only just realised I hadn't posted last week's predictions so take these results with a grain of salt, although they were in the predictions tab at least.
Becoming more and more obvious I need to come up with a top 8 side dummy variable to ensure that the model stops thinking Melbourne are a good football side, or at least maybe a method to stop giving them as much credit as they get for blowing teams out.
| Home | Away | Home Predicted Score | Away Predicted Score | Predicted Margin | Home Score | Away Score | Margin | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essendon | St Kilda | 105 | 74 | 31 | 122 | 79 | 43 | 12.19 |
| Hawthorn | Geelong | 85 | 83 | 2 | 71 | 60 | 11 | 9.15 |
| Gold Coast | Richmond | 48 | 106 | -58 | 51 | 125 | -74 | -16.22 |
| Port Adelaide | West Coast | 74 | 79 | -5 | 58 | 62 | -4 | 0.67 |
| Collingwood | Brisbane Lions | 106 | 83 | 24 | 104 | 73 | 31 | 7.44 |
| GW Sydney | Adelaide | 90 | 79 | 11 | 106 | 92 | 14 | 2.98 |
| North Melbourne | Western Bulldogs | 97 | 79 | 18 | 85 | 92 | -7 | -24.58 |
| Melbourne | Sydney | 99 | 70 | 29 | 78 | 87 | -9 | -38.01 |
| Fremantle | Carlton | 89 | 73 | 16 | 101 | 72 | 29 | 13.29 |
7/9 correct tips for the round takes the season total to 119 while a round MAE of 13.84 decreases the season MAE to 27.92 Season Bits increases to 27.63.
Updated ratings
| Team | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Overall Rating | Last Offensive Rating | Last Defensive Rating | Last Overall Rating | Overall Change | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 10.8668 | 10.2767 | 21.1435 | 9.31397 | 10.5316 | 19.8456 | 1.297870 | 1 |
| Melbourne | 16.2111 | 3.09922 | 19.3103 | 17.8849 | 4.46588 | 22.3508 | -3.040432 | -1 |
| GW Sydney | 7.57544 | 7.20441 | 14.7799 | 6.29143 | 8.25014 | 14.5416 | 0.238279 | 1 |
| West Coast | 5.9499 | 8.46532 | 14.4152 | 7.27555 | 7.19331 | 14.4689 | -0.053638 | 1 |
| Geelong | 6.03961 | 7.89737 | 13.937 | 7.91132 | 6.75803 | 14.6693 | -0.732364 | -2 |
| Collingwood | 7.3724 | 5.1746 | 12.547 | 7.56159 | 4.39051 | 11.9521 | 0.594904 | 0 |
| Hawthorn | 4.24665 | 5.18011 | 9.42676 | 5.38599 | 3.3084 | 8.69439 | 0.732364 | 0 |
| Port Adelaide | -4.08432 | 11.7417 | 7.65735 | -2.8123 | 10.416 | 7.60371 | 0.053638 | 0 |
| Essendon | 5.82886 | 1.49433 | 7.32319 | 4.44643 | 1.90189 | 6.34831 | 0.974881 | 0 |
| Sydney | -3.07549 | 9.15598 | 6.0805 | -4.44214 | 7.4822 | 3.04006 | 3.040432 | 2 |
| Adelaide | 4.96033 | -1.67855 | 3.28178 | 3.91459 | -0.394536 | 3.52006 | -0.238279 | 0 |
| North Melbourne | 3.87409 | -1.1853 | 2.68879 | 4.80794 | -0.153012 | 4.65493 | -1.966136 | -2 |
| Brisbane Lions | 3.70615 | -10.1528 | -6.44665 | 4.49024 | -10.342 | -5.85175 | -0.594904 | 0 |
| Western Bulldogs | -10.3189 | -4.5165 | -14.8354 | -11.3512 | -5.45035 | -16.8016 | 1.966136 | 1 |
| St Kilda | -6.78885 | -9.0733 | -15.8622 | -7.1964 | -7.69087 | -14.8873 | -0.974881 | -1 |
| Fremantle | -10.1453 | -8.75796 | -18.9032 | -11.102 | -8.86458 | -19.9666 | 1.063365 | 0 |
| Carlton | -18.9023 | -17.8356 | -36.7379 | -18.7957 | -16.8789 | -35.6745 | -1.063365 | 0 |
| Gold Coast | -22.8191 | -16.9743 | -39.7934 | -23.074 | -15.4215 | -38.4955 | -1.297870 | 0 |