There was an issue this week with the predictions that were posted in the preview post, not sure what happened with this but the predictions on the predictions page were the correct ones from the model so have been used to update the model for this week.
| Home | Away | Home Predicted Score | Away Predicted Score | Predicted Margin | Home Score | Away Score | Margin | Error | Bits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | Western Bulldogs | 90 | 72 | 19 | 90 | 55 | 35 | 16.46 | 0.491016 |
| Richmond | St Kilda | 104 | 57 | 47 | 105 | 77 | 28 | -19.1 | 0.846316 |
| Brisbane Lions | Sydney | 79 | 103 | -24 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 5.71 | 0.585436 |
| Geelong | Carlton | 100 | 52 | 48 | 73 | 45 | 28 | -19.68 | 0.850152 |
| GW Sydney | Essendon | 86 | 75 | 10 | 60 | 95 | -35 | -45.4 | -0.389603 |
| Hawthorn | West Coast | 84 | 100 | -16 | 60 | 75 | -15 | 1.3 | 0.444792 |
| Melbourne | Adelaide | 89 | 91 | -2 | 146 | 55 | 91 | 92.61 | -0.0549942 |
| Fremantle | North Melbourne | 72 | 90 | -19 | 58 | 86 | -28 | -9.39 | 0.492334 |
Overall on what should've been posted in the preview the model tipped 6/8 and had a MAE of 26.21 lowers the season MAE to 28.73.
Updated ratings
| Team | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Overall Rating | Last Offensive Rating | Last Defensive Rating | Last Overall Rating | Overall Change | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 13.6898 | 7.10532 | 20.7952 | 9.13839 | 4.24774 | 13.3861 | 7.409032 | 4 |
| West Coast | 7.77044 | 10.1918 | 17.9623 | 9.78799 | 8.27833 | 18.0663 | -0.104037 | -1 |
| Sydney | 0.571282 | 15.582 | 16.1533 | 3.42852 | 13.1812 | 16.6097 | -0.456424 | -1 |
| Richmond | 6.17378 | 8.81304 | 14.9868 | 6.1335 | 10.3817 | 16.5152 | -1.528334 | -1 |
| Collingwood | 2.1707 | 6.22866 | 8.39936 | 2.18337 | 4.89921 | 7.08259 | 1.316774 | 3 |
| Port Adelaide | -1.20326 | 9.42393 | 8.22067 | 0.345386 | 7.52761 | 7.87299 | 0.347677 | 1 |
| Geelong | -3.66293 | 11.8511 | 8.1882 | -1.51718 | 11.2796 | 9.76244 | -1.574248 | -1 |
| North Melbourne | -0.54325 | 8.18042 | 7.63717 | -0.196054 | 7.08175 | 6.8857 | 0.751471 | 1 |
| Adelaide | 3.0109 | 4.5791 | 7.59 | 5.86848 | 9.13055 | 14.999 | -7.409032 | -5 |
| Hawthorn | -2.94034 | 2.621 | -0.319338 | -1.02683 | 0.603458 | -0.423375 | 0.104037 | 1 |
| GW Sydney | -7.46229 | 5.75135 | -1.71094 | -5.41378 | 7.33467 | 1.9209 | -3.631838 | -1 |
| Essendon | -3.05275 | -0.40436 | -3.45711 | -4.63607 | -2.45287 | -7.08894 | 3.631838 | 0 |
| Western Bulldogs | -13.4765 | 1.49268 | -11.9838 | -12.147 | 1.48 | -10.667 | -1.316774 | 0 |
| Fremantle | -11.3826 | -1.08977 | -12.4724 | -10.284 | -1.43697 | -11.7209 | -0.751471 | 0 |
| Brisbane Lions | -5.15543 | -7.32488 | -12.4803 | -2.75462 | -10.1821 | -12.9367 | 0.456424 | 0 |
| St Kilda | -10.6481 | -1.97923 | -12.6273 | -12.2167 | -1.93895 | -14.1556 | 1.528334 | 0 |
| Carlton | -16.1488 | -10.5918 | -26.7406 | -15.5773 | -12.7375 | -28.3149 | 1.574248 | 1 |
| Gold Coast | -17.7637 | -10.365 | -28.1287 | -15.8674 | -11.9136 | -27.781 | -0.347677 | -1 |