Not a great round overall for the model with three close results under 10 points but a number predictions a long way off, with 4 over 50 points and 2 over 80. Melbourne's win in particular has reminded me of the need to look into introducing something to reduce the impact blow out wins have on teams ratings given teams can often get a run on in the second half when the game is over and this over and under rates good and bad teams at times. That's something for when I have the time look into it though.
| Home | Away | Home Predicted Score | Away Predicted Score | Predicted Margin | Home Score | Away Score | Margin | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide | Western Bulldogs | 103 | 74 | 28 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 8.74 |
| North Melbourne | GW Sydney | 80 | 72 | 7 | 112 | 69 | 43 | 35.65 |
| Gold Coast | Port Adelaide | 66 | 99 | -32 | 42 | 82 | -40 | -7.6 |
| Essendon | Geelong | 67 | 93 | -26 | 84 | 50 | 34 | 59.86 |
| Sydney | Fremantle | 94 | 66 | 28 | 111 | 52 | 59 | 30.61 |
| St Kilda | Collingwood | 68 | 91 | -23 | 72 | 100 | -28 | -4.66 |
| Carlton | Melbourne | 76 | 96 | -20 | 50 | 159 | -109 | -89.07 |
| Brisbane Lions | Hawthorn | 79 | 106 | -27 | 129 | 73 | 56 | 82.72 |
| West Coast | Richmond | 81 | 87 | -7 | 130 | 83 | 47 | 53.84 |
Overall 6/9 tips right and a MAE of 41.42 pushes the season MAE up to 28.98.
Updated ratings
| Team | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Overall Rating | Last Offensive Rating | Last Defensive Rating | Last Overall Rating | Overall Change | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Coast | 9.78799 | 8.27833 | 18.0663 | 5.83612 | 7.90173 | 13.7379 | 4.328462 | 4 |
| Sydney | 3.42852 | 13.1812 | 16.6097 | 1.98599 | 12.1343 | 14.1203 | 2.489476 | 2 |
| Richmond | 6.1335 | 10.3817 | 16.5152 | 6.51009 | 14.3335 | 20.8436 | -4.328462 | -2 |
| Adelaide | 5.86848 | 9.13055 | 14.999 | 9.04984 | 5.284 | 14.3338 | 0.665187 | -1 |
| Melbourne | 9.13839 | 4.24774 | 13.3861 | 4.10348 | 2.12949 | 6.23297 | 7.153161 | 3 |
| Geelong | -1.51718 | 11.2796 | 9.76244 | 1.88799 | 12.6601 | 14.5481 | -4.785672 | -4 |
| Port Adelaide | -1.20326 | 9.42393 | 8.22067 | 0.345386 | 7.52761 | 7.87299 | 0.347677 | -1 |
| Collingwood | 2.18337 | 4.89921 | 7.08259 | 1.46742 | 5.28422 | 6.75164 | 0.330943 | -1 |
| North Melbourne | -0.196054 | 7.08175 | 6.8857 | -3.09431 | 6.35761 | 3.2633 | 3.622400 | 2 |
| GW Sydney | -5.41378 | 7.33467 | 1.9209 | -4.68963 | 10.2329 | 5.5433 | -3.622400 | 0 |
| Hawthorn | -1.02683 | 0.603458 | -0.423375 | 1.57678 | 4.42106 | 5.99783 | -6.421206 | -2 |
| Essendon | -4.63607 | -2.45287 | -7.08894 | -6.01658 | -5.85804 | -11.8746 | 4.785672 | 2 |
| Western Bulldogs | -12.147 | 1.48 | -10.667 | -8.30046 | -1.70135 | -10.0018 | -0.665187 | 0 |
| Fremantle | -10.284 | -1.43697 | -11.7209 | -9.23701 | 0.00557354 | -9.23144 | -2.489476 | -2 |
| Brisbane Lions | -2.75462 | -10.1821 | -12.9367 | -6.57221 | -12.7857 | -19.3579 | 6.421206 | 1 |
| St Kilda | -12.2167 | -1.93895 | -14.1556 | -12.6017 | -1.22299 | -13.8247 | -0.330943 | -1 |
| Gold Coast | -17.7637 | -10.365 | -28.1287 | -15.8674 | -11.9136 | -27.781 | -0.347677 | 1 |
| Carlton | -15.5773 | -12.7375 | -28.3149 | -13.4591 | -7.70263 | -21.1617 | -7.153161 | -1 |
Lots of movement this week in the rankings with only the Western Bulldogs, GWS and Adelaide not moving. Geelong were the biggest faller (4 places) while West Coast and Melbourne both moved up 3 places.
Melbourne and Brisbane were the two biggest improvers, with West Coast, Essendon, North Melbourne and Sydney all improving significantly as well. On the other side their opponents Carlton, Hawthorn, Geelong, Richmond, GWS and Fremantle fell considerably.