It was a bit of a mixed bag this week, a couple of exceptionally close predictions (in particular the Western Bulldogs vs Gold Coast match) and a couple of pretty ordinary ones such as Geelong-GWS and West Coast-Port.
| Home | Away | Home Predicted Score | Away Predicted Score | Predicted Margin | Home Score | Away Score | Margin | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong | GW Sydney | 83 | 78 | 4 | 93 | 32 | 61 | 56.53 |
| Western Bulldogs | Gold Coast | 86 | 74 | 12 | 81 | 72 | 9 | -3.01 |
| Essendon | Hawthorn | 79 | 99 | -20 | 67 | 90 | -23 | -2.77 |
| West Coast | Port Adelaide | 84 | 85 | -1 | 102 | 60 | 42 | 43.26 |
| Sydney | North Melbourne | 91 | 72 | 19 | 66 | 68 | -2 | -21.44 |
| Adelaide | Carlton | 106 | 63 | 43 | 125 | 70 | 55 | 11.66 |
| Richmond | Fremantle | 107 | 63 | 44 | 110 | 33 | 77 | 33.15 |
| St Kilda | Melbourne | 77 | 91 | -13 | 67 | 106 | -39 | -25.66 |
| Brisbane Lions | Collingwood | 63 | 108 | -45 | 114 | 121 | -7 | 37.76 |
Overall 7/9 tips right and a MAE of 26.13 brings the season MAE down to 29.22.
Updated ratings
| Team | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Overall Rating | Last Offensive Rating | Last Defensive Rating | Last Overall Rating | Overall Change | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 7.58071 | 14.1455 | 21.7263 | 7.31407 | 11.7603 | 19.0743 | 2.651914 | 0 |
| Adelaide | 8.80486 | 6.0655 | 14.8704 | 7.30066 | 6.63674 | 13.9374 | 0.932967 | 1 |
| Geelong | 3.83162 | 9.48424 | 13.3159 | 3.02076 | 5.7726 | 8.79336 | 4.522497 | 4 |
| Sydney | 1.88126 | 10.7974 | 12.6787 | 3.88582 | 10.5077 | 14.3935 | -1.714819 | -2 |
| West Coast | 5.49176 | 6.4217 | 11.9135 | 4.05211 | 4.40018 | 8.45228 | 3.461177 | 3 |
| Hawthorn | 2.87008 | 4.4375 | 7.30758 | 3.5694 | 3.51683 | 7.08623 | 0.221352 | 3 |
| Collingwood | 4.32572 | 2.70884 | 7.03456 | 3.24648 | 6.8089 | 10.0554 | -3.020816 | -2 |
| GW Sydney | -3.42492 | 9.74541 | 6.32049 | 0.286716 | 10.5563 | 10.843 | -4.522497 | -4 |
| Port Adelaide | -1.45132 | 7.70714 | 6.25582 | 0.570204 | 9.14679 | 9.717 | -3.461177 | -3 |
| Melbourne | 0.651649 | 3.19258 | 3.84423 | -0.583866 | 2.37502 | 1.79115 | 2.053076 | 0 |
| North Melbourne | -3.12979 | 4.45561 | 1.32582 | -2.84005 | 2.45105 | -0.388996 | 1.714819 | 0 |
| Western Bulldogs | -8.97158 | -0.22938 | -9.20096 | -8.53908 | -0.421381 | -8.96046 | -0.240502 | 1 |
| Essendon | -5.1345 | -4.76521 | -9.8997 | -4.21383 | -5.46452 | -9.67835 | -0.221352 | 1 |
| Fremantle | -9.45849 | -1.48803 | -10.9465 | -7.07321 | -1.22139 | -8.2946 | -2.651914 | -2 |
| St Kilda | -10.9484 | -0.916525 | -11.8649 | -10.1309 | 0.318991 | -9.81187 | -2.053076 | 0 |
| Gold Coast | -15.3124 | -5.41383 | -20.7262 | -15.1204 | -5.84633 | -20.9667 | 0.240502 | 0 |
| Brisbane Lions | -9.40261 | -11.6906 | -21.0933 | -13.5027 | -10.6114 | -24.1141 | 3.020816 | 1 |
| Carlton | -14.4696 | -8.37569 | -22.8453 | -15.0408 | -6.87148 | -21.9123 | -0.932967 | -1 |
Geelong, West Coast and Brisbane were all big improvers this week on the back of strong performances, while GWS, Port Adelaide and Collingwood were on the receving end and saw the largests declines in ratings.
Geelong, West Coast and Hawthorn all moved up multiple positions while GWS, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Fremantle and Sydney all fell multiple spots this week.