A good round of footy with a number of upsets with the model only corrently predicting 3 of the 8 non drawn games.
| Home | Away | Home Predicted Score | Away Predicted Score | Predicted Margin | Home Score | Away Score | Margin | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | Adelaide | 93 | 85 | 8 | 75 | 85 | -10 | -18.39 |
| St Kilda | GW Sydney | 69 | 95 | -27 | 73 | 73 | 0 | 26.57 |
| Carlton | West Coast | 77 | 95 | -18 | 69 | 79 | -10 | 7.84 |
| Port Adelaide | Geelong | 88 | 83 | 4 | 50 | 84 | -34 | -38.15 |
| Fremantle | Western Bulldogs | 79 | 89 | -10 | 108 | 54 | 54 | 63.77 |
| North Melbourne | Hawthorn | 81 | 99 | -18 | 98 | 70 | 28 | 45.67 |
| Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast | 95 | 90 | 5 | 71 | 76 | -5 | -10.36 |
| Melbourne | Richmond | 68 | 101 | -32 | 56 | 102 | -46 | -13.82 |
| Collingwood | Essendon | 90 | 88 | 2 | 101 | 46 | 55 | 52.7 |
In terms of MAE it was an improved round compared with last week but just outside the rough goal I set of an MAE under 30 at 30.81. That brings the season MAE down very slightly to 30.86.
Updated ratings
| Team | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Overall Rating | Last Offensive Rating | Last Defensive Rating | Last Overall Rating | Overall Change | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 5.52463 | 11.6796 | 17.2042 | 5.41847 | 10.6803 | 16.0988 | 1.105402 | 0 |
| Adelaide | 7.42033 | 7.43379 | 14.8541 | 7.40303 | 5.98022 | 13.3833 | 1.470862 | 2 |
| Sydney | 3.41034 | 9.08076 | 12.4911 | 4.86391 | 9.09805 | 13.962 | -1.470862 | 0 |
| GW Sydney | 2.99137 | 9.23422 | 12.2256 | 4.78117 | 9.57041 | 14.3516 | -2.125995 | -2 |
| Collingwood | 3.41688 | 8.63135 | 12.0482 | 2.55815 | 5.274 | 7.83215 | 4.216091 | 3 |
| Geelong | 4.34001 | 6.28756 | 10.6276 | 4.28964 | 3.28595 | 7.57559 | 3.051973 | 3 |
| West Coast | 4.60839 | 4.68591 | 9.2943 | 5.87396 | 4.04771 | 9.92167 | -0.627367 | -2 |
| Port Adelaide | -0.560883 | 7.26235 | 6.70147 | 2.44072 | 7.31272 | 9.75344 | -3.051973 | -2 |
| Hawthorn | 3.62676 | 1.96643 | 5.59319 | 5.92295 | 3.32411 | 9.24706 | -3.653878 | -2 |
| North Melbourne | -0.92047 | 4.32878 | 3.40831 | -2.27815 | 2.03258 | -0.245569 | 3.653878 | 0 |
| Melbourne | -1.9361 | 0.214383 | -1.72171 | -0.936853 | 0.320541 | -0.616312 | -1.105402 | 0 |
| Essendon | -2.61734 | -4.48026 | -7.09759 | 0.740016 | -3.62152 | -2.8815 | -4.216091 | 0 |
| St Kilda | -8.23797 | 0.543186 | -7.69479 | -8.57416 | -1.24662 | -9.82078 | 2.125995 | 1 |
| Fremantle | -8.06781 | -1.88168 | -9.94949 | -10.4087 | -4.64261 | -15.0513 | 5.101851 | 1 |
| Western Bulldogs | -7.99092 | -2.38914 | -10.3801 | -5.22998 | -0.0482215 | -5.2782 | -5.101851 | -2 |
| Brisbane Lions | -8.57559 | -12.6878 | -21.2634 | -6.6478 | -13.7867 | -20.4345 | -0.828917 | 0 |
| Carlton | -13.7491 | -7.84874 | -21.5979 | -13.1109 | -9.1143 | -22.2252 | 0.627367 | 0 |
| Gold Coast | -16.3084 | -8.42234 | -24.7307 | -15.2095 | -10.3501 | -25.5597 | 0.828917 | 0 |
Collingwood and Geelong were the big movers this round jumping 3 place and solidying themselves in the top 8 sides in the comp, while Adelaide also jumped 2 spots back up into the top 2 where they have reguarly found themselves over the last 12 months.
At the other end GWS, West Coast, Port Adelaide, Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs all fell 2 places on the back of underwhelming performances.
While they only moved up one place, Fremantle were the biggest improver in terms of rating, improving by 5.101 points follwing their strong win over the Dogs.