Looking forward to round 5 we have an interesting round of footy in store.
5 games this round are predicted to be decided by under 2 goals, with an average winning margin for the round of 13.78, compared to last weeks predicted average margin of 24.11 (it turned out to be a 53.44).
On paper the best games of the round look to be the ANZAC Day clash, Port Adelaide vs Geelong and while maybe not quite on the same level for quality but in terms of an even contenst the Q Clash.
When coparing this round's predictions with the punters the only disagreement is between Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs, with SEARS predicting a 10 point Bulldogs win, while the line is 10.5 points the other way. There is a good chance that this is unfair on Fremantle as the current method of calculating home field advantage does not yet give the Western Australian teams with an advantage of playing at home.
| Home | Away | Ground | Home Predicted Score | Away Predicted Score | Predicted Margin | Home Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | Adelaide | S.C.G. | 93 | 85 | 8 | 0.5960 |
| St Kilda | GW Sydney | Docklands | 69 | 95 | -27 | 0.2256 |
| Carlton | West Coast | M.C.G. | 77 | 95 | -18 | 0.3041 |
| Port Adelaide | Geelong | Adelaide Oval | 88 | 83 | 4 | 0.5480 |
| Fremantle | Western Bulldogs | Perth Stadium | 79 | 89 | -10 | 0.3885 |
| North Melbourne | Hawthorn | Docklands | 81 | 99 | -18 | 0.3058 |
| Brisbane Lions | Gold Coast | Gabba | 95 | 90 | 5 | 0.5619 |
| Melbourne | Richmond | M.C.G. | 68 | 101 | -32 | 0.1834 |
| Collingwood | Essendon | M.C.G. | 90 | 88 | 2 | 0.5266 |
The difference between some predicted scores may appear to be slightly off the predicted margin by a point, this is due to rounding for display in this table.