While admittedly my results up to this point are irrelevent given I have only uploaded them after the fact I figured I may as well get a start on post round analysis and what a great round to pick.
What looked to be a fairly onesided round going in proved to be even more so than expected, even if the results didn't always go the way they were predicted.
| Home | Away | Home Predicted Score | Away Predicted Score | Predicted Margin | Home Score | Away Score | Margin | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide | Collingwood | 104 | 75 | 29 | 58 | 106 | -48 | -76.92 |
| GW Sydney | Fremantle | 102 | 73 | 29 | 82 | 51 | 31 | 1.9 |
| Richmond | Brisbane Lions | 113 | 76 | 37 | 110 | 17 | 93 | 55.54 |
| Western Bulldogs | Sydney | 75 | 111 | -36 | 79 | 86 | -7 | 29.13 |
| North Melbourne | Carlton | 92 | 82 | 10 | 116 | 30 | 86 | 76.21 |
| West Coast | Gold Coast | 99 | 72 | 27 | 139 | 59 | 80 | 53 |
| Essendon | Port Adelaide | 89 | 100 | -11 | 106 | 84 | 22 | 33.17 |
| Hawthorn | Melbourne | 94 | 95 | -1 | 115 | 48 | 67 | 67.88 |
| Geelong | St Kilda | 107 | 70 | 37 | 103 | 56 | 47 | 10.34 |
Overall it was by far the worst result of the season thus far with a round MAE of 44.89 much higher than the season MAE of 30.88.
Wet conditions across the round meant that SEARS predicted much higher scoring games in a number of instances than we saw which did not help the predictions but overall it was a disappointing result.
Updated ratings
| Team | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Overall Rating | Last Offensive Rating | Last Defensive Rating | Last Overall Rating | Overall Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond | 5.41847 | 10.6803 | 16.0988 | 5.68051 | 5.9753 | 11.6558 | 4.443000 |
| 2 | GW Sydney | 4.78117 | 9.57041 | 14.3516 | 6.35477 | 7.8447 | 14.1995 | 0.152103 |
| 3 | Sydney | 4.86391 | 9.09805 | 13.962 | 6.88578 | 9.40691 | 16.2927 | -2.330732 |
| 4 | Adelaide | 7.40303 | 5.98022 | 13.3833 | 11.0633 | 8.4734 | 19.5367 | -6.153437 |
| 5 | West Coast | 5.87396 | 4.04771 | 9.92167 | 2.66664 | 3.01516 | 5.6818 | 4.239873 |
| 6 | Port Adelaide | 2.44072 | 7.31272 | 9.75344 | 3.74856 | 8.65815 | 12.4067 | -2.653267 |
| 7 | Hawthorn | 5.92295 | 3.32411 | 9.24706 | 4.2677 | -0.451144 | 3.81656 | 5.430504 |
| 8 | Collingwood | 2.55815 | 5.274 | 7.83215 | 0.0649706 | 1.61374 | 1.67871 | 6.153437 |
| 9 | Geelong | 4.28964 | 3.28595 | 7.57559 | 4.61692 | 2.13153 | 6.74846 | 0.827134 |
| 10 | North Melbourne | -2.27815 | 2.03258 | -0.245569 | -4.18909 | -2.15366 | -6.34274 | 6.097174 |
| 11 | Melbourne | -0.936853 | 0.320541 | -0.616312 | 2.8384 | 1.97579 | 4.81419 | -5.430504 |
| 12 | Essendon | 0.740016 | -3.62152 | -2.8815 | -0.605412 | -4.92936 | -5.53477 | 2.653267 |
| 13 | Western Bulldogs | -5.22998 | -0.0482215 | -5.2782 | -5.53884 | -2.0701 | -7.60894 | 2.330732 |
| 14 | St Kilda | -8.57416 | -1.24662 | -9.82078 | -7.41974 | -1.5739 | -8.99365 | -0.827134 |
| 15 | Fremantle | -10.4087 | -4.64261 | -15.0513 | -8.68302 | -6.21621 | -14.8992 | -0.152103 |
| 16 | Brisbane Lions | -6.6478 | -13.7867 | -20.4345 | -1.94276 | -14.0487 | -15.9915 | -4.443000 |
| 17 | Carlton | -13.1109 | -9.1143 | -22.2252 | -8.9247 | -7.20337 | -16.1281 | -6.097174 |
| 18 | Gold Coast | -15.2095 | -10.3501 | -25.5597 | -14.177 | -7.14281 | -21.3198 | -4.239873 |
Unsurprisingly the five big winners of the round (Collingwood, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Richmond and West Coast) were the biggest gainers for the round, while their opponents (Adelaide, Carlton, Melbourne, Brisbane and Gold Coast) moved down the furthest.
Adelaide's big loss to Collingwood saw them fall from the number 1 ranking to number 4, while Richmond moved from the 5th ranked side to the top for the first time this season. Despite an 80 point loss and losing over 4 rating points Gold Coast managaged to move closer to 16th and 17th ranked Brisbane and Carlton on the back of their big losses over the weekend.
As expected the competition's ratings are spreading further apart after the offseason's regression with the gap between Richmond and Gold Coast now close to 7 goals.